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Up to the minute NOAA Huricane
Info
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NHC Atlantic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook -
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013) -
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19
the center of TWO was located near 19.2, -93.1
with movement WNW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
-
Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 7A -
Issued at 100 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
000
WTNT32 KNHC 190558
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
100 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 93.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
-
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 7 -
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
000
WTNT22 KNHC 190247
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 92.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N 94.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 92.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7 -
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
000
WTNT42 KNHC 190248
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KT.
THE DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE AND
BEND WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. IN FACT...BASED ON THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST AND TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT POSSIBILITY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 18.9N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.2N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-
Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 -
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
000
FONT12 KNHC 190248
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 11 14 32 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 57 50 45 42 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 41 38 40 25 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 1 2 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-
Tropical Depression TWO Graphics -
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:01:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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