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BEAUFORT CONDITIONS TODAY'S FORECAST FIVE-DAY FORECAST
78.0F
Fair
(Feels like )
Dew Point: 70.0F
Humidity: 76%
Pressure: 30.12 inches
Wind: SSW at 4.6 mph
Visibility:
  HIGH  F    MPH
  LOW  F    % PRECIP
% % % % %
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Up to the minute NOAA Huricane Info

 

NHC Atlantic
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook -
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 301721
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Fred, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
    Praia in the Cape Verde Islands.

    A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
    producing areas of heavy rain over portions of south Florida, the
    Florida Keys, and western Cuba. Although development of this
    system appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds, locally
    heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread northward across
    Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Monday.
    Additional information on this system can be found in local forecast
    products issued by the National Weather Service and the
    meteorological service of Cuba.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

    &&

    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi


  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015) - ...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 14.4, -21.3 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

  • Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 4 - Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 302034
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    ...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
    ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.4N 21.3W
    ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Cape Verde Islands
    
    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
    to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
    rushed to completion.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
    located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 21.3 West.  Fred is
    moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northwestward
    motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through
    Tuesday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and
    Fred is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
    the Cape Verde Islands overnight, with hurricane conditions
    beginning late tonight or early Monday morning.
    
    STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
    in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
    coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
    
    RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
    3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
    maximum amounts of 8 inches.  These rains could produce
    life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    


  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 4 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 302034
    TCMAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
    TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  21.3W AT 30/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  14 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
    50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  21.3W AT 30/2100Z
    AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  20.8W
    
    FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  21.3W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    


  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 4 - Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 302035
    TCDAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon.  A new burst of
    deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming
    more symmetric.  Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also
    reveal increased banding in all quadrants.  AMSR-2 and GCOM
    microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues
    to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in
    the 37 GHz imagery.  The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,
    which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from
    TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.
    
    Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized
    by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient
    mid-level moisture during the next day or so.  Therefore, additional
    strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to
    become a hurricane tonight or early Monday.  This is supported by
    the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to
    hurricane status.  In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone
    will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing
    southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more
    stable air mass.  This should result in weakening throughout the
    remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens
    Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h.
    
    Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial
    motion estimate is 310/14 kt.  The forecast track philosophy remains
    unchanged from before.  The cyclone should move northwestward toward
    a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so.  In a
    couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge
    rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and
    central Atlantic.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little north
    of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement
    with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.
    
    Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
    product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
    Cape Verde Islands.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
     12H  31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
     24H  31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
     36H  01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
     48H  01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
     72H  02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
     96H  03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
    120H  04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    


  • Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015
    
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 302034
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
    2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
    14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    


  • Tropical Storm FRED Graphics - Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 20:36:14 GMT

    Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 21:06:46 GMT

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